538: Will voters prefer Republicans over Democrats by Election Day?
Política
PolymarketFechadoVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoEste mercado foi resolvido: Yes
Evidência de resolução limitada
A CoinRithm pode mostrar o resultado registrado, mas nem todos os campos de liquidação são verificados pelo provedor.
Probabilidade implícita atual
Sim 100%
Qualidade do mercado
15 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
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Liquidez
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Liquidez desconhecidaDados do mercado
Atualizado há 122 dias
Desatualizado4/10/22, 0:008/11/22, 0:00
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
Yes100%
No0%
100%
0%
Regras
If the FiveThirtyEight graph titled "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" shows Republicans a greater percentage of support than Democrats on any date from October 4 through November 8, 2022 (inclusive) during the check times, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The resolution source for this market is the FiveThirtyEight "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" graph, with the "POLL TYPE" option set to "Generic ballot" and the "CYCLE" option set to "2022".
- The graph is presently located at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/.
- Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates this graph's figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
- This resolution source for this market will be checked every day at 8 PM ET, with the final check being on November 8, 8 PM ET.
