Will Ukraine attack Belarus by the end of 2026
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAGeopolíticaRússia / Ucrânia2m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 10:38 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 89.5%
Previsores
12
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado23/06/26, 09:15 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026, Ukrainian military forces (or state-sanctioned actors) launch or execute a deliberate military strike, drone strike, missile strike, artillery barrage, or ground incursion targeting assets or territory inside the internationally recognized borders of Belarus.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- Key conditions and clarifications:
- Eligible events: Deliberate military operations targeting Belarusian territory, including strikes to disable Russian-linked infrastructure on Belarusian soil (such as the drone-relay equipment mentioned in President Zelenskyy's June 2026 ultimatum), will resolve the market to YES.
- Exclusions: Unintentional border incidents, stray Ukrainian air-defense missiles chasing Russian targets, or falling debris from intercepted targets will not qualify unless major international news outlets confirm the strike was a deliberate operation targeting Belarusian soil.
