Will Trump’s second presidential term NOT end exactly on January 20, 2029, due to war, emergency, impeachment, or other
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoGeopolíticaRússia / Ucrânia2a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 74.6%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado5/01/26, 08:22 UTC21/01/29, 11:59 UTC
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Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election and is serving his second presidential term, which under normal constitutional rules should end exactly at 12:00 PM (noon) on January 20, 2029, as defined by the 20th Amendment.
- This market resolves YES if Trump’s second term does not end exactly at that time, for any reason, including the term being extended, shortened, suspended, or otherwise altered.
- In other words, this market asks whether anything abnormal happens to prevent the term from ending exactly on schedule.
- Events that trigger a YES resolution (non-exhaustive)
- Any of the following count as YES, provided they legally affect the term’s end:
- War or armed conflict used to justify continuation or suspension of normal constitutional processes
