Will Trump's approval rating be higher on election day (Nov. 3, 2026) than it was in his first term (Nov. 6, 2018)?
PolíticaOne-OffUS PoliticsEleição1mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 92%
Previsores
12
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado26/01/26, 15:05 UTC3/11/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Trump's approval rating on Sep 11, 2026?
KalshiTrump approval rating on September 11?
PolymarketHow low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?
KalshiWill Trump's approval rating increase this week? (9/4-9/11)
KalshiHow low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
PolymarketHow high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
PolymarketRegras
Resolution Criteria
- Market resolves YES if Trump's approval rating on November 3rd, 2026 is higher on the Silver Bulletin than it was in his first term (using FiveThirtyEight, who, through the Wayback machine, puts his approval at 42.0%).
- If the Silver Bulletin is not available, then I'll use RealClearPolitics for both 2018 and 2026 (43.5% in 2018).
- Market resolves NO if equal or lower.
- Background How popular is Donald Trump? - Silver Bulletin
- Wayback Machine - FiveThirtyEight