Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 95.8%
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15
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado9/12/25, 05:22 UTC28/02/27, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegras
2025 saw unprecedented impacts to the federal workforce.
- Will 2026 bring similar results?
- I will subtract the January 2026 reading of federal employee count from the January 2027 reading using the FRED federal employee counts given here:
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001
- If the difference exceeds 100,000 the answer resolves yes, and no otherwise.