Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?
PolíticaGeopolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUA2a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 69.4%
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102
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binary
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Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado18/01/26, 11:47 UTC20/01/29, 11:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if Trump deploys U.S. military forces to Greenland without Danish/Greenlandic consent in an attempt to establish control over any portion of its territory, AND leaves office before January 20, 2029 via:
- Impeachment and Senate conviction, OR
- Resolves NO if he deploys such forces and completes his term (or leaves due to e.g. death or incapacitation)
- Resolves N/A if no unauthorized military deployment to Greenland occurs.
- Update 2026-01-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Removal via military coup or other non-constitutional means would resolve NO.
- The market specifically tracks removal through constitutional accountability (impeachment/conviction) or political pressure (resignation) only.
