Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 74.5%
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33
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado9/11/23, 15:51 UTC1/01/51, 07:59 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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If any companies or countries gets 100 people or more to be on mars and alive by the end of 2050 this will resolve as a YES.
- If there is less than 100, it will resolve as NO.
- Any crashes or corpses will not be inuded in the final head count.
Mercados abertos
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
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LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- € 57,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 57,4 mil
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- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
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- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
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KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
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- June 30, 202753%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will there be at least 100 people on mars by 2050??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 75% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will there be at least 100 people on mars by 2050? é resolvido?
- Will there be at least 100 people on mars by 2050? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2051.
- Como Will there be at least 100 people on mars by 2050? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If any companies or countries gets 100 people or more to be on mars and alive by the end of 2050 this will resolve as a YES.