Will the US pass a federal law with binding safety requirements for frontier AI models before the end of 2027?
One-OffRegulamentaçãoIAPolítica dos EUA1a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 59%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado30/10/26, 16:25 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2027, a US federal law is signed that imposes binding requirements (testing, reporting, licensing or liability) specifically on developers of frontier or general-purpose AI models.
- Executive orders, agency guidance, state laws and laws that only fund research or create advisory bodies do not count.
- Background: in September 2026 I asked an AI for its ten-year forecast, best case and worst case.
- Its 2027 worst-case list included "Hearings are held, nothing passes; lobbying money beats public concern." I am making a market for each checkable point so the forecast can be scored.
- The full forecast is free: The Forecast: 2027 to 2036, best case and worst case
- [link preview]
