Will the US launch a Manhattan Project / Apollo Program for AI safety by EOY 2030?
PolíticaOne-OffTecnologiaPolítica dos EUAGeopolítica4a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 59.7%
Previsores
6
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado21/06/26, 22:17 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2030, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time, the United States federal government officially launches a major national initiative dedicated primarily to AI safety, alignment, or catastrophic risk mitigation that meets the following criteria:
- Financial Threshold: The enactment of federal legislation that appropriates a cumulative total of $7 billion USD or more specifically and primarily dedicated to AI safety research, AI alignment, safety evaluations, or catastrophic AI risk mitigation.
- Large-scale federal projects dedicated primarily to accelerating AI capabilities, AGI dominance, general scientific discovery, or military integration (such as the 2025 "Genesis Mission" under EO 14363) will not trigger a YES resolution, unless they contain a distinct, explicitly funded sub-program dedicated primarily to AI safety/alignment that meets the $7 billion threshold.
- Funding dedicated primarily to general hardware, compute infrastructure, or semiconductor manufacturing does not count toward the $7 billion AI safety threshold.
- Sources of Verification: Resolutions will be verified using official government portals, including the Federal Register (https://www.federalregister.gov/) for Executive Orders, Congress.gov for enacted legislation, or official press releases from the White House, Department of Energy, or Department of Commerce.
