Will the US formally notify a new arms sale to Taiwan (DSCA/TECRO) by November 30, 2026?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoGeopolíticaChina1m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 83.1%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado25/09/26, 08:27 UTC1/12/26, 04:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) publishes a Major Arms Sales announcement that the State Department has approved a possible Foreign Military Sale to the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States (TECRO), i.e. a formal congressional notification of an arms sale to Taiwan.
- Oracle: the DSCA Major Arms Sales page for TECRO — https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/taipei-economic-and-cultural-representative-office-united-states-tecro — or DSCA's main Major Arms Sales listing.
- Any TECRO notification counts, of any size, including spare parts or follow-on support.
- It does not need to be part of the reported $14B package.
- Resolves NO if no such DSCA announcement is dated within the window.
- The following do NOT count: news reports that a sale "will go ahead", informal notifications to Congress that DSCA hasn't published, direct commercial sales, Presidential Drawdown Authority transfers, Foreign Military Financing, and contracts signed under sales that were notified before this market was created.
