Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the next president die while in office??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 85% em 29 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Will the next president die while in office? é resolvido?

Will the next president die while in office? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de fevereiro de 2029.

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 85%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 9 horas

Desatualizado

2/08/23, 05:44 UTC2/02/29, 07:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

For the purpose of this market "next president" is the president elected in 2024 (and thus could be President Biden).

Market is not impacted if Biden dies before starting his second term - the relevant president would be the person who starts that term.
Resolves to no if the next president resigns or is removed, even if they then die before their term would have ended.