Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will SpaceX's first Starship Cargo mission successfully land on the moon??

A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 80.7% em 27 de outubro de 2026.

Will SpaceX's first Starship Cargo mission successfully land on the moon?

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Sim 80.7%

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binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Atualizado há 6 horas

Desatualizado

11/09/23, 22:35 UTC2/01/31, 04:59 UTC

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Resultado24hProbabilidade

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For a successful mission Starship needs to soft-land on the moon, and the payloads on the lander need to be operational.

Derivatives of Starship will count as Starship for this market, what counts as a "derivative" of Starship is up to my judgement.
HLS is a derivative of Starship, but only missions which deliver cargo to the surface of the moon count for this market.
This will tentatively stay open until a cargo mission is attempted or it becomes clear that none will actualize; the close date isn't particularly relevant other than as a measure of expected timelines