Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 15 ?
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Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 13:19 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualSim 85.4%
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7
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
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Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado25/07/26, 12:23 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if SpaceX plans and executes a booster catch attempt using the launch tower's "chopstick" arms (Mechazilla) during Starship Flight 15 (the 15th integrated flight test of the Starship/Super Heavy system, also known as IFT-15).
- To resolve as YES:
- SpaceX's official mission profile prior to launch must plan for a return-to-launch-site booster catch, and the booster must launch and perform its return maneuver toward the launch pad/tower.
- This includes successful catches, crashes at the pad/tower, or mid-flight aborts/diversions to a water splashdown for safety reasons (where the catch was actively attempted but waived off during descent, similar to the flight profile of Starship Flight 6).
- This market will resolve to NO if:
