Will Sheikh Hasina end her exile and return to Bangladesh in 2026?
One-OffPolíticaSouth AsiaCrime & Justice3mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 98.9%
Previsores
5
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado1/09/26, 01:22 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will India extradite Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh by EoY 2026?
Manifold MarketsYoon out of custody before 2027?
PolymarketModi out by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketLee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
PolymarketWill India be renamed to Bharat before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWho will lead India after Narendra Modi leaves power?
Manifold MarketsRegras
Former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been living in exile in India since being ousted during a August 2024 student uprising.
- While she announced her desire to end her exile and return to Bangladesh by late 2026, doing so carries massive stakes.
- A special tribunal in Dhaka sentenced Hasina to death in absentia over human rights violations and genocide tied to the violent 2024 protest crackdown.
- Bangladesh's current interim government has banned her party, and authorities confirmed she will face immediate arrest if she sets foot in the country.
- Hasina frames her return as a duty to her supporters, while critics maintain she faces prison or execution upon arrival.
- This market resolves YES if Hasina physically enters Bangladesh by December 31, 2026, and NO if legal risks and political instability keep her in exile.
Mercados abertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 605,7 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 697,7 mil
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 mais resultados
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 603,2 mi
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 183,4 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 471,3 mil
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 mais resultados
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Sheikh Hasina end her exile and return to Bangladesh in 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 99% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Sheikh Hasina end her exile and return to Bangladesh in 2026? é resolvido?
- Will Sheikh Hasina end her exile and return to Bangladesh in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will Sheikh Hasina end her exile and return to Bangladesh in 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been living in exile in India since being ousted during a August 2024 student uprising.