Will Russia conduct a new wave of public military mobilization before the end of 2026?
PolíticaOne-OffGeopolíticaRussia / Ukraine3mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 70.4%
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17
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 16 horas
Desatualizado28/07/26, 06:17 UTC31/12/26, 19:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegras
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new wave of public military mobilization is conducted in Russia before the end of 2026, and to "No" otherwise.
- The previous wave of partial mobilization was announced by President Vladimir Putin on September 21, 2022, and resulted in approximately 300,000 reservists being called up.
- That mobilization was officially declared complete by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on October 28, 2022, with no further measures planned at that time.
- For the purposes of this market, a "new wave of public military mobilization" means an official, publicly announced mobilization decree by the Russian government ordering the compulsory call-up of military reservists or conscripts beyond routine annual conscription cycles.
- Rumors, covert preparations, legislative changes, or unofficial statements about potential mobilization do not count as resolution events.
- Resolution sources: This market will be resolved based on official reports from BBC (bbc.com) or CNN (cnn.com) confirming that a new wave of public mobilization has been formally announced and is being carried out in Russia.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Russia conduct a new wave of public military mobilization before the end of 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 70% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Russia conduct a new wave of public military mobilization before the end of 2026? é resolvido?
- Will Russia conduct a new wave of public military mobilization before the end of 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will Russia conduct a new wave of public military mobilization before the end of 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new wave of public military mobilization is conducted in Russia before the end of 2026, and to "No" otherwise.