Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?
One-OffPolítica dos EUAPolítica2a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 90%
Não 90%Previsores
130
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 19 horas
Desatualizado9/11/24, 19:16 UTC2/11/28, 06:59 UTC
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KalshiRegras
This will be resolved based on my judgement of the vibes of top Rationalist voices in 4 years.
- If through their Tweets and Substack posts, I get the sense that they are happy with Trump's reforms, and that what got done was extremely impactful, vastly outweighs any harms, and was more sizable than what other post WWII presidents have accomplished, then I will resolve YES.
- Otherwise, NO.
- EDIT: This would be judged from 1960 with JFK (68 years before 2028).
- Update 2025-02-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Majority Requirement Clarification:
- A majority of prominent rationalists must hold the view that Trump’s second term was the most positively impactful since 1960.
