Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 98.7%
Previsores
15
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado5/01/26, 15:42 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if humans successfully fly to the Moon (i.e., travel to lunar orbit or land on the lunar surface) before January 1, 2040.
- This includes crewed missions that orbit the Moon or land on it.
- Resolution will be confirmed via official announcements from space agencies (NASA, ESA, CNSA, etc.) or credible news reports from major outlets covering the mission.
- Artemis II is the first crewed mission to the vicinity of the Moon since Apollo 17 in 1972.
- Launch is scheduled for no earlier than February 5, 2026, with the 10-day mission carrying four astronauts on a free-return trajectory around the Moon and back to Earth.
