Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualDec 31st 2028 or earlier? 33%Líder entre 7 opções
Previsores
30
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado4/11/25, 14:39 UTC1/01/29, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
0%
0%
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Mercados Relacionados
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KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRegras
On a recent episode of the Bg2 Pod, Sam Altman (CEO of OpenAI) was aaked about how OpenAI can have a reported $13ish billion usd in revenue and yet have over $1 trillion in spending commitments over the next years.
- Sam had a lot to say, but as part of his response said, "There are not many times I want to be a public company, but one of the rare times that it's appealing is when those people are writing these ridiculous, 'OpenAI is about to go out of business,'....I would love to tell them they could just short the stock, and I would love to see them get burned on that."
- article about this here: https://www.businessinsider.com/sam-altman-defends-openai-trillion-spending-2025-11
- Youtube video of podcast here: https://youtu.be/Gnl833wXRz0?si=hYqgzVM7qjlzjS-n (see ~12:00 mark for the question)
- This is a modest attempt to operationalize that, and I highly encourage any OpenAI bulls and bears to buy YES and NO respectively in this market.
- Each question will resolve YES if the below happens on or before the question's indicated date, and if either of the following occurs:
Mercados abertos
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 85,3 mil
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 184,9 mil
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 mais resultados
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.4pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.3pt2.1%
+9 mais resultados
POLYMARKETIsrael Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?
- Yes+43.3pt94%
- No-43.3pt6%
- Volume total
- € 21,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 20,3 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- 1.5T++12.0pt78.2%
- 1.25T–1.5T-3.0pt8.9%
- 1T–1.25T-1.4pt5.9%
+4 mais resultados
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- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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Criptos relacionadas
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will OpenAI 'Go Out of Business'...?
- A Manifold Markets cota Dec 31st 2028 or earlier? em 33% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will OpenAI 'Go Out of Business'... é resolvido?
- Will OpenAI 'Go Out of Business'... deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2029.
- Como Will OpenAI 'Go Out of Business'... é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: On a recent episode of the Bg2 Pod, Sam Altman (CEO of OpenAI) was aaked about how OpenAI can have a reported $13ish billion usd in revenue and yet have over $1 trillion in spending commitments over the next years.