Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 59%
Previsores
8
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado21/12/25, 12:36 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if New Glenn completes more orbital launches than Falcon 9 during the calendar year 2030.
- The count includes all orbital-class launches by each rocket, regardless of mission type or outcome (successful or failed launches both count).
- Considerations
- New Glenn is a newly operational rocket with only two flights as of December 2025, while Falcon 9 is a mature vehicle with an established high launch cadence.
- SpaceX's Falcon 9 growth may be reaching an end as it transitions launches to Starship, with 2025 and 2026 anticipated to be the highest Falcon launch rates.
