Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 96.8%
Previsores
13
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado22/01/26, 04:51 UTC24/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Resolution criteria
- Neutron will resolve YES if Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket completes its first orbital flight before December 25, 2026.
- The first flight is expected to be in mid-2026, with the first flight vehicle expected to be shipped to Wallops during the first quarter of 2026.
- Resolution will be based on official confirmation from Rocket Lab or credible space industry sources (e.g., Spaceflight Now, NASASpaceflight.com) that the rocket has successfully reached orbit.
- A successful first flight requires reaching orbit; reaching suborbital altitudes or clearing the pad does not count.
- The market resolves NO if the first orbital flight does not occur by December 25, 2026.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Neutron Launch before Christmas??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 97% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Neutron Launch before Christmas? é resolvido?
- Will Neutron Launch before Christmas? deverá ser resolvido em 24 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will Neutron Launch before Christmas? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria