Previsão da comunidade atual
Sim 82.6%
Previsores
15
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 minutos
30/07/26, 13:44 UTC1/01/27, 23:59 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
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KalshiRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Friedrich Merz is the official Federal Chancellor (Bundeskanzler) of Germany at any point on January 1, 2027, according to official government sources.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- The primary source of truth for this market will be the official portal of the Federal Chancellor (https://www.bundeskanzler.de) or the Federal Government of Germany (https://www.bundesregierung.de).
- In the event of a delay in updating these websites, credible international news outlets (such as Deutsche Welle, Reuters, or Bloomberg) will be used to verify who holds the office on that date.
- Note on acting chancellors: If Friedrich Merz is serving as an acting (geschäftsführender) Chancellor on January 1, 2027 (e.g., following a vote of no confidence or the collapse of a coalition), this market will still resolve to YES, provided he has not officially stepped down or been replaced by a successor sworn in by the Federal President.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 83% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027? é resolvido?
- Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria