Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 88.6%
Previsores
22
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado18/02/25, 11:17 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegras
Resolves YES if at any date before the 1st of January 2027, the 1922 Committee of the Conservative Party announce that the threshold of letters of no confidence (currently 33% of all Conservative MPs - 41 MPs as at date of creation) has been met, a Vote of No Confidence is scheduled, and takes place before the close date.
- If a VoNC does not happen, or a vote is triggered but does not take place before 1st Jan 2027, this resolves NO.
- According to current party rules, no VoNC can take place before the party leader has been in place for a full year, meaning a VoNC cannot take place before November 2025, so this covers a period of a little over a year after VoNC season starts.
- Clarification: if the party rules are amended to allow a VoNC then this will count for a YES resolution.
- The key part is the vote occurring, not any rule changes to enable it.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Kemi Badenoch face a Vote of No Confidence before 1st January 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 89% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Kemi Badenoch face a Vote of No Confidence before 1st January 2027? é resolvido?
- Will Kemi Badenoch face a Vote of No Confidence before 1st January 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will Kemi Badenoch face a Vote of No Confidence before 1st January 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves YES if at any date before the 1st of January 2027, the 1922 Committee of the Conservative Party announce that the threshold of letters of no confidence (currently 33% of all Conservative MPs - 41 MPs as at date of creation) has been met, a Vote of No Confidence is scheduled, and takes place before the close date.