Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Jeff Bezos spend a year in outer space??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 88.9% em 31 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Will Jeff Bezos spend a year in outer space? é resolvido?

Will Jeff Bezos spend a year in outer space? deverá ser resolvido em 29 de março de 2054.

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 88.9%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 10 horas

Desatualizado

28/03/24, 07:40 UTC29/03/54, 03:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

The close date is arbitrary; either I or a moderator will extend the close date as needed until either of the criteria have been met.

If Jeff Bezos spends at least 365 days consecutively above the Karmen Line (100 km altitude), then this market resolves YES.
If he dies before this happens, this market resolves NO.
For purposes of this market, “Jeff Bezos” is only Jeffrey Preston Bezos, founder of Amazon.com, born on January 12, 1964.
I will not bet in this market.
Related markets: @/jks/will-jeff-bezos-spend-a-day-in-oute @/jks/will-jeff-bezos-spend-a-week-in-out @/jks/will-jeff-bezos-spend-a-month-in-ou @/jks/will-jeff-bezos-spend-a-year-in-out (this market)