Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 25 de out. de 2026, 21:13 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 79.7%
Previsores
11
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 minutos
18/02/26, 16:41 UTC19/01/29, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
This market resolves YES if JD Vance becomes President of the United States at any point between now and January 19, 2029 (before Trump's second term ends).
- CONTEXT: The 22nd Amendment creates an interesting incentive: if Vance becomes president AFTER January 20, 2027 (the midpoint of Trump's term), he could potentially serve up to 10 years total as president (remainder of Trump's term + two full elected terms).
- If he becomes president BEFORE that date, he can only serve one additional elected term.
- RESOLVES YES IF: - Vance assumes the presidency via 25th Amendment (voluntary or involuntary) - Trump resigns and Vance succeeds him - Trump dies and Vance succeeds him - Any other scenario where Vance becomes president before Jan 20, 2029 RESOLVES NO IF: - Trump completes his full second term - Someone other than Vance becomes president before Jan 20, 2029 Resolution date: January 20, 2029 (or earlier if YES)
