Will Israel annex at least 15% of Syria by 2029?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAGeopolíticaOriente Médio2a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 94%
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9
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Atualizado há 22 horas
Desatualizado20/01/26, 07:01 UTC31/12/28, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Israel formally annexes territory comprising at least 15% of Syria's total land area by December 31, 2029.
- For resolution purposes, "annexation" means Israel passes legislation or makes an official declaration claiming sovereignty over the territory, similar to the 1981 Golan Heights Law or the 2019 Trump administration recognition.
- Syria's total area is approximately 185,180 square kilometers, making 15% equal to roughly 27,777 square kilometers.
- Israel currently occupies over 1,700 square kilometers of territory (the 1,200 sq km Golan Heights plus over 500 sq km of additional southwestern Syrian territory), representing approximately 0.9% of Syria's total area.
- Resolution will be determined by official Israeli government statements, legislation, or international recognition of annexation.