Will Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Trump’s Tuesday 8pm ET ultimatum?
PolíticaOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopolíticaMiddle EastManifold MarketsFechadoSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoEste mercado foi resolvido: No (99%)
Resolvido: 10 de ago. de 2026, 16:35
Resolução verificada pelo provedor
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Previsão da comunidade atualNão 99%
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26
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binary
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Atualizado há 10 dias
Desatualizado4/08/26, 13:4410/08/26, 16:35
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
Yes1%
No99%
99%
1%
Regras
Market context: Bloomberg reported that President Trump gave Iran an ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday at 8:00 p.m.
- The market is not about whether the Bloomberg story is real; it is about whether Iran actually complies with the ultimatum by reopening the strait before the deadline.
- Bloomberg’s reporting framed the demand as reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring freedom of navigation, so the market should resolve only on a clear, reported reopening or formal agreement to reopen.
- Resolution criteria: YES if, by 8:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Bloomberg reports that Iran has reopened the Strait of Hormuz or has formally agreed to reopen it in accordance with Trump’s ultimatum.
