Will Iran experience political change before September 2026?
PolíticaOne-OffEntretenimentoMusicMiddle East1mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 19 de jul. de 2026, 20:20 UTC · política pm-quality-2
Previsão da comunidade atualSim 27.4%Líder entre 4 opções
Previsores
6
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 dias
Desatualizado17/07/26, 22:1931/08/26, 23:59
Tendências
Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro
Resultado escolhido
Yes27%
Tendência de volume
$2517 de jul.3d de dados19 de jul.
Mercados Relacionados
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
673,6 €December 31: 6%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
3,9 mil €No meeting by December 31: 70%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to actual normal of 100 ships per day during Trump's presidency.
93,6 €Sim: 43.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
87,9 €December 31: 13%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Which countries will officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?
2,9 €Israel: 71%
KALSHI
KALSHI
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
585,2 mil €Jon Ossoff: 15%KALSHI
KALSHIAtivos nestes tópicos
Notícias Relacionadas
Polymarket odds: Eizenkot jumps to 46% to lead Israel PM raceBlockchain.News
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.News
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikesBlockchain.NewsPolymarket: Iran regime-fall odds dip to 9.5% despite escalation reportBlockchain.NewsPolymarket sees 55.5% odds for Iran blockade end by Aug. 31 after Trump jabBlockchain.News
US freezes $131M in Iran-linked crypto as Middle East tensions riseCointelegraphRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to Yes if, between the time of this market's creation and August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, any of the following events occur in Iran:
- Change in Supreme Leadership: Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to hold the office of Supreme Leader of Iran (due to death, resignation, ouster, or incapacitation) and is succeeded by another individual, or the office of Supreme Leader is officially abolished.
- Change in Presidency: Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to hold the office of President of Iran (due to death, resignation, impeachment, or ouster).
- Regime Overthrow or Systemic Change: The official governing system of Iran (the Islamic Republic) is overthrown, dissolved, or replaced; or a new constitution is formally adopted that fundamentally alters the governing structure of the country (e.g., abolishing the theocratic system).
- If none of these specific events are officially confirmed by credible global news agencies (such as Reuters, Associated Press, Al Jazeera, or BBC) to have occurred prior to September 1, 2026, the market will resolve to No.