Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?
US PoliticsGeopolíticaMonthlyMiddle East21dManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 96.7%
Previsores
30
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 44 minutos
26/03/26, 08:39 UTC30/09/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
US-Iran nuclear deal?
KalshiWhat will be included in the Iran-US peace deal?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
PolymarketUS-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?
PolymarketU.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by which date?
PolymarketWill the Iran Nuclear Deal be revived under Iran's new president Masoud Pezeshkian?
Manifold MarketsRegras
Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if the US and Iran sign or formally announce a binding nuclear agreement (or equivalent framework deal endorsed by both governments) on or before September 30, 2026.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Source signal: AP News (March 26, 2026): Trump claims Iran is eager to deal while Tehran dismisses his ceasefire plan.
- Both sides hardening positions; Iran grips Strait of Hormuz.
- AP-NORC poll: most Americans say US military action against Iran gone too far.
- Why this matters: A US-Iran nuclear deal would reshape 2026 geopolitics—oil prices, Middle East stability, US foreign policy.
Mercados abertos
US PoliticsPOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt98%
- $25M+0.8pt95%
- $50M+10.0pt95%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 855,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 683,4 mil
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 183,6 mi
- Volume 24h
KALSHIRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Helena Foulkes-0.4pt97.1%
- Dan McKee+2.3pt2.9%
- Gregory Stevens0%
- Volume total
- € 620,1 mil
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-1.0pt84%
- Republican Party16%
- Volume total
- € 24,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 215,2 mil
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+2.8pt57.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu+1.0pt28.3%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 97% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026? é resolvido?
- Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 30 de setembro de 2026.
- Como Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if the US and Iran sign or formally announce a binding nuclear agreement (or equivalent framework deal endorsed by both governments) on or before September 30, 2026.