Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027?
CommoditiesGeopolíticaOne-OffMiddle EastTecnologia1aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 89.7%
Previsores
15
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado13/05/26, 16:08 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or a consensus of major intelligence agencies (such as the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence) officially confirms that Iran has successfully produced, tested, or acquired a fully functional nuclear weapon on or before December 31, 2027.
- If no such confirmation is made by this date, or if international authorities determine that Iran has not achieved this capability, the market resolves to NO.
- In the event of conflicting official reports, the market will resolve based on the assessment provided by the IAEA.
- Iran’s nuclear program has been a subject of intense international scrutiny for decades.
- Since the 2018 U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran has progressively increased its uranium enrichment levels.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 90% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027? é resolvido?
- Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria