Will I travel 500 miles away from home by December 31, 2027? (Not counting today. Google says I'm 496 miles from home.)
TecnologiaOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 65%
Previsores
6
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado23/07/26, 17:49 UTC1/01/28, 07:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point between July 25, 2026, and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM (my local time), I travel to a location that is 500 or more miles away from my primary residence.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- Measurement: Distance is measured as a straight-line ("as the crow flies") distance from my primary residence to my furthest point of travel, calculated using Google Maps or an equivalent mapping tool.
- Exclusions: Travel undertaken or completed on or before July 23, 2026, does not count toward this market.
- As of July 23, 2026, I am currently 496 miles away from home, which does not meet the 500-mile threshold and is excluded from the timeline.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will I travel 500 miles away from home by December 31, 2027? (Not counting today. Google says I'm 496 miles from home.)?
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 65% em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will I travel 500 miles away from home by December 31, 2027? (Not counting today. Google says I'm 496 miles from home.) é resolvido?
- Will I travel 500 miles away from home by December 31, 2027? (Not counting today. Google says I'm 496 miles from home.) deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2028.
- Como Will I travel 500 miles away from home by December 31, 2027? (Not counting today. Google says I'm 496 miles from home.) é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria