Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 72.7%
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68
Tipo de pergunta
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado22/10/23, 10:02 UTC9/11/28, 07:59 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Gavin Newsom run for President in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom run for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom both run for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom win the Democratic Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExWill Gavin Newsom win the US Presidential Election in 2028?
ForecastExRegras
Updated description:
- My current take: this should not be the same as "does he win the primary"; that's a different question, that we have other markets for. "Run for" in my mind means election activity, including being on the primary ballot, or the presidential ballot, or filing FEC forms.
- I propose that this resolve Yes if either:
- He appears on any primary or general election ballot for the office of the Presidency or party (presumably Democratic) nomination for it
- He files an FEC Form 2
- Any objections or proposed other criteria?
