Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 55.9%
Previsores
13
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado29/12/25, 21:03 UTC1/03/28, 23:59 UTC
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The resolution is based on my subjective assessment of his public statements, and I will not trade in this market.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, in my judgment, Newsom uses strongly anti-AI rhetoric in public remarks on social media or in speeches and debates before March 2, 2028. "Strongly anti-AI" means rhetoric that goes substantially beyond his current position of supporting responsible AI development—such as calling for major restrictions on AI development, characterizing AI as primarily a threat rather than an opportunity, or advocating for policies that would significantly constrain the AI industry.
- Casual criticism of specific AI applications or calls for narrow guardrails would not qualify, and the positions he takes must be consistent throughout multiple remarks (an offhand comment once wouldn't count).
- Newsom stated in October 2025 that after the 2026 midterm elections, he would give "serious thought" to running in 2028. 55% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents say they'd consider voting for Newsom in a 2028 Democratic primary, making him a leading contender.
- Newsom's current AI stance emphasizes responsible development rather than opposition.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 56% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028? é resolvido?
- Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de março de 2028.
- Como Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The resolution is based on my subjective assessment of his public statements, and I will not trade in this market.