Previsão da comunidade atual
Sim 90.4%
Previsores
15
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado18/07/26, 05:42 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030?
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KalshiRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if exactly four humans, and no other parties, are officially awarded the Fields Medal in the calendar year 2030.
- It resolves to NO if this is not the case (in the calendar year 2030) for any reason.
- For example, this market will resolve NO if any AI model is awarded the medal in 2030, or if no medals are awarded in 2030.
- The Fields Medal is awarded every four years by the International Mathematical Union (IMU) during the International Congress of Mathematicians (ICM).
- According to the IMU statutes, the selection committee is instructed to choose at least two and no more than four Fields Medalists under the age of 40, with a strong preference for awarding exactly four medals.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 90% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030? é resolvido?
- Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2030.
- Como Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria