Will Federal Agents draw guns on voters on Election Day 2026
PolíticaOne-OffEleiçãoPolítica dos EUAGeopolíticaCrime e justiça12d
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 79.2%
Previsores
14
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado21/03/26, 22:56 UTC4/11/26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if federal agents (including FBI, ICE, DHS, or other federal law enforcement) draw firearms on voters at polling locations on Election Day 2026 (November 3, 2026).
- The act of drawing a gun must occur at or immediately adjacent to a polling place and be directed at or in the presence of voters.
- This market resolves NO if no such incident occurs by the end of Election Day 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by credible news reports from major outlets documenting the incident.
- Ambiguous cases (e.g., agents drawing weapons in response to an active threat unrelated to voting) will resolve NO unless the primary context is voter intimidation or election interference.
