Will Democrats win back the house in 2026 midterms?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoEleições de meio de mandato dos EUA 202615d
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 93%
Previsores
17
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado19/09/26, 03:15 UTC14/11/26, 11:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Democrats win back the House in 2026 ?
Manifold MarketsWill Max Miller leave the House before the midterms?
KalshiWill Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Chuck Edwards leave the House before the midterms?
KalshiSplit Senate and House in the 2026 Midterms?
Manifold MarketsSpeaker of the House after the midterms?
PolymarketRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, as a result of the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections (scheduled for November 3, 2026), the Democratic Party wins back control of the House of Representatives for the 120th Congress.
- Specifically, YES will be the resolving outcome if:
- The Democratic Party wins a majority of at least 218 of the 435 voting seats.
- Or, if neither major party wins 218 seats due to independents or third-party representatives, the Democratic Party successfully organizes the chamber (e.g., by electing a Democrat as Speaker of the House at the start of the 120th Congress in January 2027).
- The market will resolve to NO if the Republican Party (or any other non-Democratic coalition) retains or wins a majority of seats or successfully organizes the chamber.