Will Daniel Ortega lose power in 2026?
One-OffPolíticaPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoGeopolíticaAmérica LatinaCrime e justiça2mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 90%
Previsores
8
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado21/07/26, 17:26 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Bibi Netanyahu lose power during or in the aftermath after the 2023 Hamas-Israel War
Manifold MarketsWill Amancio Ortega (Spanish businessman) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsFirst to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?
Manifold MarketsWill the ANC lose power in South Africa before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump pardon Gannon Ken Van Dyke before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point on or before December 31, 2026 (11:59 PM UTC), Daniel Ortega ceases to be the President (or Co-President/head of state) of Nicaragua, or otherwise definitively loses de facto power.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- To resolve to YES, one of the following events must occur and be confirmed by credible international media outlets (such as Reuters, the Associated Press, or BBC) on or before the December 31, 2026 deadline:
- Official Removal or Resignation: Daniel Ortega officially resigns, is removed, or is otherwise replaced as President/head of state.
- Death or Permanent Incapacitation: Daniel Ortega is officially declared deceased or permanently incapacitated, resulting in a successor (such as Co-President Rosario Murillo) officially assuming the presidency.
