Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 84%
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31
Tipo de pergunta
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado2/11/23, 12:54 UTC1/01/70, 07:59 UTC
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Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?
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Manifold MarketsIndia meets its 2030 climate goals?
KalshiUS meets its climate goals?
KalshiEU meets its 2030 climate goals?
KalshiRegras
If climate-based disasters, including their chain reactions (drought -> famine; sea level rises -> migration -> disease; etc.), cause a 10% reduction ("decimation") of humans by the close date this resolves YES.
- Otherwise NO after close.
- 10% reduction might mean any one or mix of factors:
- outright deaths
- decrease in fertility causing population decline w/in timeframe
- reduction in population replacement curves, over the global average
Mercados abertos
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Volume total
- € 15,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 18,3 mil
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- € 1,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,2 mil
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 mais resultados
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Volume total
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Volume total
- € 916 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 1,5 mil
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-2.0pt57%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 863,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 1 mil
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will climate change decimate humans before 2070??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 84% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will climate change decimate humans before 2070? é resolvido?
- Will climate change decimate humans before 2070? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2070.
- Como Will climate change decimate humans before 2070? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If climate-based disasters, including their chain reactions (drought -> famine; sea level rises -> migration -> disease; etc.), cause a 10% reduction ("decimation") of humans by the close date this resolves YES.