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  1. Mercados de Previsão
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  3. Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?
Manifold Markets

Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?

RegulamentaçãoOne-OffHealth & MedicineChina4a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSem KYC
Previsão da comunidade atual
Manifold Markets
2026 33%
Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores

2

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado anteontem

Desatualizado
13/06/26, 23:0731/12/30, 23:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

202633%

Regras

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This is an independent multiple-choice market.
  • Each year will resolve independently as YES or NO based on whether China registers more Phase 3 clinical trials than the United States during that calendar year.
  • Primary Source of Truth: The database compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), specifically accessed via the WHO Global Observatory on Health Research and Development dashboard for "Number of clinical trial registrations by year, location, disease and phase of development".
  • Resolution Rules:
  • YES: If the final count of Phase 3 clinical trial registrations for China (as the trial location) is strictly greater than the count for the United States (as the trial location) for the given calendar year.

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Regras

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This is an independent multiple-choice market.
  • Each year will resolve independently as YES or NO based on whether China registers more Phase 3 clinical trials than the United States during that calendar year.
  • Primary Source of Truth: The database compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), specifically accessed via the WHO Global Observatory on Health Research and Development dashboard for "Number of clinical trial registrations by year, location, disease and phase of development".
  • Resolution Rules:
  • YES: If the final count of Phase 3 clinical trial registrations for China (as the trial location) is strictly greater than the count for the United States (as the trial location) for the given calendar year.