Will a majority government owned company introduce a new GLP-1 drug before 2040?
RegulamentaçãoOne-OffChinaEuropa13aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 84.1%
Previsores
2
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado25/01/25, 21:23 UTC31/12/39, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
Background GLP-1 (Glucagon-like peptide-1) drugs are currently one of the fastest-growing segments in the pharmaceutical industry, primarily used for treating type 2 diabetes and obesity.
- The market is dominated by private companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.
- Many sources predict a very significant impact of cost of those drugs on public health systems, which could potentially be solved by a Manhattan Project-like development effort to create a government-owned alternative.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:
- A company that is >50% owned by any national government receives regulatory approval for a new GLP-1 drug in at least two major markets (US, EU, UK, Japan, China) before January 1, 2040
- The drug must be a novel GLP-1 receptor agonist, not a generic version or biosimilar of an existing drug
