Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 87.9%
Previsores
36
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 28 minutos
11/01/24, 21:01 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill China obtain an EUV machine?
KalshiDoes China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsTaipei Mayor Election Winner
PolymarketRegras
Currently, the only company in the world which can produce those machines is the Dutch ASML.
- EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) machines are capable of producing incredibly small transistors of 3mm-5mm form factors.
- As such, they are critical in producing modern chips.
- ASML is prohibited from exporting EUV machines to China by US trade restrictions, which has prompted China to come up woth solutions to keep them in the chip game.
- To qualify for a YES resolution, a machine:
- Must be assembled in China.