Will China announce a nationwide policy to materially slow frontier AI development before December 31, 2027
ChinaOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 87%
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Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado3/10/26, 00:33 UTC30/12/27, 23:59 UTC
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This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2027, a Chinese central-government body announces a new nationwide policy explicitly intended to slow or limit frontier AI development.
- Examples include a moratorium or cap on frontier-model training, approval requirements for large training runs, nationwide limits on AI compute expansion, or a stated pause in frontier AI development.
- Ordinary AI regulation, content rules, model registration, efficiency requirements, foreign-technology restrictions, and local policies don't qualify unless they are part of a nationwide central-government policy.
- Vague statements about “responsible” or “orderly” AI development do not qualify.
