Will China also kidnap the president of Taiwan in 2026?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAGeopolíticaChinaAmérica Latina2m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 97.8%
Previsores
14
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado6/01/26, 13:53 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China successfully kidnaps or captures Taiwan's president (currently Lai Ching-te) at any point during 2026.
- Resolution requires credible reporting from major international news sources confirming the capture.
- The market resolves NO if the year ends without such an event occurring.
- U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife on January 3, 2026, sparking discussion about whether China might follow suit with Taiwan.
- The operation sparked widespread discussion on Chinese social media, with the topic gaining some 440 million views on Weibo, and Chinese social media users are arguing that Beijing should adopt Trump's methods and apply them to Taiwan.
