Will August 2026 U.S. advance retail sales rise at least 0.5% month-over-month?
One-OffMacro & EconomyEconomiaInflation7dManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 64%
Previsores
6
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 minutos
17/06/26, 09:20 UTC16/09/26, 12:25 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will August 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsWill October 2026 U.S. PPI final demand rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsWill November 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsWill Kentucky distillery employment rise YoY?
KalshiUS retail sales in August
KalshiUK retail sales in August
KalshiRegras
This market resolves YES if the initial U.S. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services release for August 2026 reports that headline U.S. retail and food services sales rose 0.5% or more month-over-month.
- Use the advance estimate for total retail and food services sales for August 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences but not for price changes.
- Resolve YES if the seasonally adjusted percent change from July 2026 to August 2026 is +0.5% or higher.
- Resolve NO if that change is +0.4% or lower.
- Do not use retail inventories, Monthly Retail Trade Report later-release figures, inflation-adjusted/real sales, CPI, PPI, PCE, retail-trade-only excluding food services, subsector rows, year-over-year change, or later annual revisions unless Census corrects the initial August 2026 advance retail-sales release before resolution.
- If the August 2026 Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report is delayed, wait for the first Census release of the August 2026 advance retail-sales figure unless there is no Census August 2026 advance retail-sales release by September 23, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_advance_sales": "$757.1 billion", "april_2026_mom": 0.5, "april_2026_yoy": 4.9, "july_2026_release_schedule": "July 2026 advance retail report scheduled for 2026-08-14 at 08:30 Eastern.", "june_2026_release_schedule": "June 2026 advance retail report scheduled for 2026-07-16 at 08:30 Eastern.", "march_2026_mom_revised": 1.6, "may_2026_release_schedule": "May 2026 advance retail report scheduled for 2026-06-17 at 08:30 Eastern.", "release": "Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, April 2026"}, "metric": "Headline U.S. retail and food services sales, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday/trading-day differences but not price changes, month-over-month from July 2026 to August 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["The existing May, June, and July 2026 advance retail-sales markets are prior-reference-month markets, not August duplicates.", "Retail inventories, business inventories, CPI, PPI, PCE, payrolls, unemployment, and recession markets use different releases or criteria.", "Monthly Retail Trade Report sales/inventories later-release markets are not duplicates of the initial Advance Monthly Retail Trade release."], "release_schedule": "Census retail release schedule lists the August 2026 Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report for 2026-09-16 at 08:30 Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial U.S. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services release for August 2026", "threshold": "+0.5% month-over-month or higher"}.
Mercados abertos
Macro & EconomyKALSHIVisitors to Florida in 2026
- Above 136 million+1.0pt98%
- Above 138 million-2.0pt94%
- Above 140 million+3.0pt80%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 125,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 47,4 mil
KALSHIConnecticut multifamily housing permits in 2026
- Above 3,500 units-1.0pt88%
- Above 4,000 units-4.0pt66%
- Above 4,500 units-18.0pt30%
+5 mais resultados
KALSHIPennsylvania gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.260099%
- Above 4.265099%
- Above 4.270099%
+14 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 17,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 17,4 mil
KALSHIWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- No93%
- Yes-2.0pt7%
- Volume total
- € 2,7 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 16 mil
KALSHIPort of New York and New Jersey container volume in 2026
- Above 8.4 million TEUs95%
- Above 8.6 million TEUs+4.0pt85%
- Above 8.7 million TEUs+3.0pt73%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIHousing units authorized in Vermont in 2026
- Above 1,700 units-4.0pt82%
- Above 1,600 units-11.0pt80%
- Above 1,800 units-5.0pt68%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on September 30?
- Will the S&P finish positive this year?
- Czech National Bank rate decision in September
- How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
- What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on September 30?
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 5, 2026
- Charlottetown, PEI Mayoral Election Winner
- How high will the S&P get this year?
- Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend amount in 2027
- How low will the S&P get this year?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will August 2026 U.S. advance retail sales rise at least 0.5% month-over-month??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 64% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will August 2026 U.S. advance retail sales rise at least 0.5% month-over-month? é resolvido?
- Will August 2026 U.S. advance retail sales rise at least 0.5% month-over-month? deverá ser resolvido em 16 de setembro de 2026.
- Como Will August 2026 U.S. advance retail sales rise at least 0.5% month-over-month? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market resolves YES if the initial U.S. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services release for August 2026 reports that headline U.S. retail and food services sales rose 0.5% or more month-over-month.