Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 99%
Previsores
47
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado5/02/25, 02:21 UTC23/12/32, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
Background Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024, by NASA's ATLAS telescope in Chile.
- The asteroid is estimated to be between 40-90 meters in diameter.
- Current calculations indicate a potential impact date of December 22, 2032, with odds ranging from 1 in 77 to 1 in 83.
- The potential impact corridor spans South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Asteroid 2024 YR4 impacts Earth's surface or atmosphere on or around December 22, 2032.
- The market will resolve NO if:
