Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 74.9%
Previsores
19
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado23/04/26, 08:16 UTC31/12/28, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegras
Artemis IV is planned to be NASA's first crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17 in 1972, sending four astronauts to lunar orbit aboard an SLS/Orion stack, with two crew descending to the lunar South Pole via a commercial Human Landing System (SpaceX Starship HLS or Blue Origin Blue Moon).
- NASA is officially targeting early 2028 for launch.
- Artemis II (crewed lunar flyby) successfully flew April 1–11, 2026.
- Artemis III (HLS test in Earth orbit) is targeted for mid-2027 and must fly first.
- Both HLS landers (Starship HLS, Blue Moon) still need to complete human-rating certification.
- Resolves YES if the Artemis IV SLS/Orion stack lifts off from the pad (T-0, engine ignition and liftoff) on or before 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2028, regardless of mission success afterward.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Artemis IV launch by end of December 2028??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 75% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Artemis IV launch by end of December 2028? é resolvido?
- Will Artemis IV launch by end of December 2028? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2028.
- Como Will Artemis IV launch by end of December 2028? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Artemis IV is planned to be NASA's first crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17 in 1972, sending four astronauts to lunar orbit aboard an SLS/Orion stack, with two crew descending to the lunar South Pole via a commercial Human Landing System (SpaceX Starship HLS or Blue Origin Blue Moon).