Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 56%
Previsores
12
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado1/08/26, 20:47 UTC31/07/34, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, by August 1, 2034, any space agency successfully executes a mission that intentionally alters the trajectory of an asteroid that was on a confirmed or highly probable collision course with Earth.
- To resolve YES, all of the following conditions must be met:
- Successful Deflection: A spacecraft must intentionally impact, gravitationally tug, or otherwise apply force to an asteroid, resulting in a verified change in its trajectory.
- This change must be confirmed by tracking data from major space agencies or independent astronomical bodies (e.g., the Minor Planet Center or the International Asteroid Warning Network).
- Prior Collision Risk: Prior to the deflection event, the targeted asteroid must have been classified as a credible threat of Earth impact.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will any space agency intentionally deflect an asteroid that would otherwise have impacted Earth by August 1, 2034??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 56% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will any space agency intentionally deflect an asteroid that would otherwise have impacted Earth by August 1, 2034? é resolvido?
- Will any space agency intentionally deflect an asteroid that would otherwise have impacted Earth by August 1, 2034? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de julho de 2034.
- Como Will any space agency intentionally deflect an asteroid that would otherwise have impacted Earth by August 1, 2034? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria