Will any human-created robot or life form create a copy of itself before 2030?
EsportesOne-OffCiênciaTecnologiaTênis3aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 14 de out. de 2026, 01:01 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualSim 59%
Previsores
29
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 26 minutos
14/03/23, 19:28 UTC1/01/30, 08:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf there is scientific consensus we've discovered the first extraterrestrial life form, will it be silicon based?
Manifold Marketswill humanity make contact with another intelligent life form / civilisation?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot beat a ranked top #10 tennis player by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsFull digitization (not necessarily emulation) of a human brain by 2035
Manifold MarketsRegras
In order to qualify, it must:
- Have been designed on an intellectual level, with humans understanding how it works.
- (A mother having a baby doesn't count.)
- Clearly be an entirely new human creation, not a modified natural thing.
- Taking inspiration from nature is ok.
- (Genetically engineering an existing bacterium to do something slightly different doesn't count, but it's ok if the new life form uses DNA, has ribosomes, runs on ATP, etc.)
