Full digitization (not necessarily emulation) of a human brain by 2035
EsportesOne-OffIACiênciaXadrezTecnologia9a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 60.9%
Não 60.9%Previsores
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Metodologia
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Atualizado há 1 minuto
14/02/24, 23:27 UTC2/01/36, 07:59 UTC
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This is a market about whether a preserved human brain will be digitized (at the resolution of synapses, and with a fidelity estimated at >90% of synapses).
- This is not for doing anything with the data, just getting it onto a computer.
- To qualify, the dataset would need to include: the whole connectome (e.g. neurons reconstructed from scanned slices), approximate synapse strength (this comes through in electron microscopy, and certain molecular labeling regimes), the cell type (e.g. Glutamate vs GABA vs dopamine, etc), and the degree of myelination of axons.
- I believe that this would constitute sufficient information for an accurate emulation of the scanned brain, but determining whether that is true isn't part of this question.
