Will Abdul El-Sayed run 3 to 6 points behind Jocelyn Benson?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleições de meio de mandato dos EUA 2026Eleição7hManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 51%
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Atualizado há 8 minutos
2/11/26, 10:04 UTC4/11/26, 04:59 UTC
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ForecastExRegras
The 2026 Michigan general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- Abdul El-Sayed is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Michigan, and Jocelyn Benson is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Michigan.
- This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Abdul El-Sayed’s vote share in the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election falls below Jocelyn Benson’s vote share in the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election.
- If El-Sayed’s vote share exceeds Benson’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”.
- Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding.
- For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing the named candidate and at least one other candidate.
