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Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?

Regulamentação IAOne-OffTecnologia3m

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Sim 86.6%

Previsores

13

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 8 horas

Desatualizado

18/03/26, 16:26 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

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Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a major tech company (defined as a company with market capitalization exceeding $100 billion or annual revenue exceeding $50 billion) publicly announces a pause or meaningful limitation on AI development activities due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027.
The announcement must explicitly cite safety as the primary reason and involve a concrete action (e.g., halting training of specific models, delaying product releases, or reducing AI R&D investment).
Statements about "prioritizing safety" or implementing safety measures without pausing development do not qualify.
Resolution sources include official company announcements, SEC filings, press releases, and statements from company leadership reported by major news outlets.
As of July 2024, a pause on AI development has not been realized—instead, AI companies have directed "vast investments in infrastructure to train ever-more giant AI systems".

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Perguntas frequentes

Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027??: A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 87% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
Quando Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027? é resolvido?: Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
Como Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027? é liquidado?: A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria

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